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Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Indian rupee crisis- possible solutions
Indian rupee crisis- possible solutions.
There are headlines circulating all over the world about the currency crisis Indian reserve bank is facing due to ever increasing current account deficit. For naïve people like myself, current account deficit in simple terms means "India as a whole is shelling out more USD than it is attracting through investments, exports etc. This makes it a primary target for currency attacks " people start pulling their investments out of the country and are risk adverse to invest due to currency fluctuations, once this happens the reserve bank has to intervene and start buying Indian currency. Major problem here is that India has 300 billion in foreign exchange reserve available to meet this demand.
Once this the foreign exchange reserve is meet the only option felt is to go to IMF (International Monetary Fund) and beg for more money "similar to Asian currency crisis in late 90's". Adverse affects of begging to IMF would be slower growth and further devaluation of rupee. One might say this would increase imports and attract investment in India, but on the other hand the major backlash would be increased inflation and higher priced imports.
To get out of this spiral, Indian reserve bank should restore investor confidence and start attracting further investments into the country.
For starters it would need to open up some of its markets especially retail for FDI "Foreign direct investment" this not only helps regain investor confidence but also lower the food prices within the country. Competion within the retail industry would mean lower prices for common man! However the person who is currently in this industry would get wiped out or would need to migrate into something different. But by providing them opportunities India would be in a better position than the current path they are on.
Lastly, they would need to increase interest rate for investments within India, to a level where it would manage to attract FDI.
There isn't a silver bullet to get out of this current crisis but by implementing these initial steps, India would give out a positive message to the world that they understand the magnitude of the problem and a pro active in finding the right solution.
Amit
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What about the people who are currently serving in this sector?
ReplyDeleteHave you thought about those
Come guy be realistic about.this
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